Ebook The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It
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The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It
Ebook The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It
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Now, drawing upon history, economics, complexity theory, human immunology, psychology and his own extraordinary experiences, Joshua Ramo puts forth a radical new model for looking at the world, one that embraces its inherent unpredictability--and offers our best hope for dealing with problems and disasters as they emerge.
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 8 hours and 19 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Hachette Audio
Audible.com Release Date: March 16, 2009
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English
ASIN: B001WYVAWK
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
I think he never had any basic knowledge on history and the ability to analyze the history.He is more like a copycat in many ways, thus he is misleading.See what was saying on NBC’s winter Olympic broadcasting...... dumb & dull!
Do not buy!
This is a good read although slow to start. The style of thinking is not original in any way — a fact the author freely admits. But it reminds you what humans are capable of when we change our style of thinking and reacting to be closer to what exists in nature.The main issue with this book is the author himself. He comes off as an arrogant, pontificating Professor; while he is accomplished and clearly smart, his style writes checks that the content does not allow him to cash. I found myself more irritated than interested in what he had to say because I felt he was talking down to me. I imagine that, in person, the author loves the sound of his own voice.In summary, a good read that will make you think assuming that you can ignore being lectured and talked down to.
Terrible writer who believes that WW2 Hitler & Japan's action actually helped Korea. This is the same thinking that Hitler's Holocaust actually helped Jewish. Japan committed even worst war crime to Korea country for horrid 36 years.
Ramos has some great insights that should help shake you out of thinking about problems our nation faces in a strictly linear manner. His hope that solutions will boil up from the grass roots I thinks is a bit optimistic. I believe we will need smart and charismatic leaders to take up the charge aided by an army of informed followers in order to make changes that work for our future. The best example of this currently is Boone Pickens and his "Pickens Plan".
He's had some interesting travels, and interesting ideas, but Ramo is clearly an armchair quarterback. Required reading for school. Interesting to see some "out there" ideas.
Ramo provides some interesting insights in this book. Essentially, he is arguing for a more network-centric approach to the organization of institutions. In this, I fully agree.He relates an interesting metaphor of "the sand pile" to illustrate the complexity of reality and how our current institutions are ill equipped to deal with uncertainty."...Bak hypothesized that after an initial period, in which the sand piled itself into a little cone, the stack would organize itself into instability, a state in which adding just a single grain of sand could trigger a large avalanche - or nothing at all. what was radical about his idea was that it implied that these sand cones, which looked relatively stable, were in fact deeply unpredictable, that you absolutely no way of knowing what was going to happen next, that there was a mysterious relationship between input and output. You could see the way physics struggled against the very limits of language when confronted by such a subject: organized instability?"Ramo argues our current national security institutions no longer are effective when confronted by uncertainty and complexity, in which a tiny change can have large and lasting ramifications. And that these institutions must develop away from straight planning for specific outcomes (which I think is a good idea) and become more loose and adaptable. They must seek to shape the outside environment, rather than control it. In short, our institutions have to learn to "surf the wave."As far as this goes, I have no argument with Ramos. I have big problems with our national security institutions being controlled by planners. In my work in Iraq I have seen more damage done by planning than anything else. The utter inability of our institutions to adapt to rapidly changing environments because they have been beholden to a plan has been immeasurable.However, my problem with Ramos is that he doesn't offer much in the way of concrete solutions. (I haven't been able to think of anything revolutionary either - but then again, I haven't written a book on the subject.) Take this quote:"One could in fact fill an entire book with interesting experiments to be tried in coming years as we wrestle with this new order: fresh ways to boost national savings rates; international efforts to reduce sugar consumption; plans to use the web to make a catalogue of every person in the world dying of AIDS. these and ten thousand other ideas need to be offered and tried - tried free of the cynicism of "we've done that" or "it won't matter." The fact is, we can't know if what didn't work will work today; we can't predict the impact of our attempts to make change, and that is why we need to keep trying it."That's great. And I agree. I have had to fight against "the cynicism of 'we've done that' or 'it won't matter'." But the reality is that there ARE limited resources. And once you have to work inside that constriction, THEN you give power to the planners - who are tasked with how to best "efficiently" divide those resources. Which requires a "plan," which then strangles any ability to deal with complexity.Please! I'd like to read the book with 10,000 ideas!
This was a necessary book for me to read as I tend to think of the country as it has been and it no longer is. Changes have been gradual and I didn't realize how much until I read this book. If anyone is interested in the future of this country and their living in it, it is an excellent book to point out the changes and how we must change our thinking to cope with it. It was not a simple book to read but it contained much information I needed to know.
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